Bypassing banks a way to avoid credit roadblock
What will financial services look like over the next 10 years for you as a personal financial consumer or an SME businessperson? It will be quite different from the last 20 years, and these changes are becoming evident now.
Is the present banking landscape the legacy of a credit-fuelled past, or is this what the future looks like? Prob-ably both.
There will be fewer banks in Ireland . The banks that do exist will not be 'chasing your borrowing business'. In fact, new lending will be very tame and the cost of lending will be more (much more) expensive.
For the next 10 years banks will seek to 'shrink' or deleverage their balance sheets. Banks will achieve this by selling their loan books and not growing their lending.
Ireland will go from a very competitive banking industry to one that will not have enough competition.
So what does this mean to you? If you are a borrower or seeking lending from a bank, the cost of the lending will be more expensive. The banks will look for much more information before they lend the money. Once they lend the money, they will also be seeking more control of it by getting updated regularly by you on your personal or business affairs.
The terms 'non-recourse' and 'equity releases' will be consigned to history, and banks will be looking for a much higher level of cash equity put into deals.
Banks will be pursuing business areas that do not grow their balance sheet. This includes trade finance, clearing and transmission businesses, pensions. These products are much more attractive to banks now as they do not have to grow their balance sheet and do not require much capital.
The pendulum of leverage has definitely swung from borrowers to depositors.
So what should you do next? For business people, you need to reduce your overall reliance on bank credit. If you don't, the banks will possibly have more control of your business than you. Secondly, a greater part of your profits will be paid to banks for more expensive credit.
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