Gilead's Pharmasset Acquisition Makes Vertex Look Cheap
On Monday, Gilead ( GILD ) surprised Wall Street with its $11 billion acquisition of biotech fledgling Pharmasset ( VRUS ). Regardless of whether Gilead is able to leverage this big money buy for profits mid decade or not, the deal is a clear endorsement of the ongoing focus on specialty drugs, and that's good for Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( VRTX ).
Biotech investors approach the industry much like gold miners in the Wild West. The hot hand attracts the interest, and Pharmasset, with a string of positive news surrounding its Hepatitis C drug PSI-7977, had attracted a lot of attention. The stock, which traded in the mid $20s as recently as February, had moved up on the heels of the FDA's approval of hepatitis C treatments from Vertex and Merck ( MRK ) in Q2.
The market for hepatitis C is big. And Gilead believes billions are up for grabs. In the U.S., 1.2 million people have the disease and another 17,000 are diagnosed each year. In Q3, the first full quarter for Vertex's Incivek, the drug captured 70% market share and produced over $400 million in revenue. Even more impressive, those results came from only about 17,000 patients, suggesting significant growth next year.
Given the money at stake, it's likely Vertex and competitor Abbott Labs ( ABT ), which has its own oral Hepatitis C treatment in trials, were interested in Pharmasset as well. But, with a price tag this steep, it's likely both determined internal programs offered just as good an opportunity as Pharmasset's at a more reasonable cost. After all, Pharmasset's $11 billion price tag is twice the market cap of Vertex, a company with $650 million in revenue last quarter and the potential to eclipse $2 billion in sales next year.
At Vertex, management is probably shaking its head. After all, they have the leading product in the space with Incivek, a drug likely to reach blockbuster status faster than any other launched. Yet, not only is the market cap half of Pharmasset, which has no sales, it's trading at a mere 6x next year earnings estimates after falling 50% in the past six months.
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is also set to advance soon. If investors are uncertain over the long-term risk of competition, they can be assured Vertex is going to generate billions in revenue and profits before these nascent treatments reach the market. This jump in cash flow
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